Fall 2024 Freshman Enrollment Declines
Fall 2024 Freshman Enrollment Declines
Freshman Fall Enrollment Falls 5% YoY
New data out this morning from National Student Clearinghouse is reporting a 5% decline in freshman enrollment year-over-year.
Public institutions experienced the steepest drop, at -8.5%, with private nonprofit colleges and universities seeing a -6.5% decline in freshman, compared to Fall 2023.
Particularly interesting is the fact that in contrast to the declines in freshman enrollment, total undergraduate enrollment appears to actually be up 3% YoY.
Will likely take some time for additional data and insights to emerge, but it begs the question…
What is causing the decline in freshman enrollment?
While the demographic cliff isn’t news to any of us, this could also be a reflection of continued declines in demand rooted in declining consumer confidence, or perhaps - most likely - is this fallout from the FAFSA fiasco?
Additional Insights
Additional callouts from this morning’s data drop include:
Associate degrees are growing (+4.3% YoY)
As is growth in credentials (+7.3% YoY)
Growth (or decline) varies significantly by state (there’s some great state-specific data available via the Clearinghouse)
You can via all the data dropped this morning here.
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Update: I've studied the methodology. The report uses a cut-off of 18 years of age when defining first-time college students, so current first-year college students who'd taken dual enrollment courses in high school are included in the count of first-year college students. Higher Ed Dive was not clear about this.
Note: Current high school students who are taking dual enrollment courses are included in the total enrollment figures for community colleges, so they're part of the increase in associate's degree students. (I guess listed as either Public 2-year or Public PAB... Primarily Associates Degree Granting Baccalaureate institutions)
What I'd written earlier:
"Higher Ed Dive reported that high school students in dual enrollment courses are not included in the first-year numbers. Dual enrollment high school students are counted in the same group as those who've done some college but returned later. Is the problem in their reporting or in the Clearinghouse classifications?
https://www.highereddive.com/news/undergraduate-enrollment-rises-3-percent-despite-drop-in-first-year-students/730629/
I think the general public and colleges consider high school students who took dual enrollment courses to be first-year students. They're not considered transfer students when they apply to college.
I haven't read the report methodology yet to clarify; I'll do that when I get to my laptop later."